As part of the TLMI Annual Meeting, which took place October 12-14, 2025, in Marco Island, FL, attendees received an in-depth look at the current economy and what the future might hold. Economist Alex Chausovsky of The Bundy Group joined the Annual Meeting for the first time, where he illustrated challenges and opportunities for the more than 500 people in attendance.

Chausovsky’s goal is help deliver an objective view of the economy, enabling label and package printers to continue to succeed now and in the future. His presentation detailed the impact of tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the latest economic data, and actionable takeaways.

“The economy has proven to be surprisingly resilient in the face of all the uncertainty that’s out there,” stated Chausovsky. “We are now shifting from a notion of uncertainty to complexity. We know there are more changes coming down the pipeline that will bring fundamental change to how you run your business.”

State of the economy

Chausovsky detailed the state of the US economy in relation to other economies around the world. For example, the US still represents by far the largest economy in the world, valued at $30.3 trillion of a $115 trillion world economy in 2025. Meanwhile, China currently sits at $19.5 trillion. For comparison’s sake, the US accounted for 26% of global GDP in 1980, and at the end of 2024 also registered 26% of global GDP.

“There is a view that the US is being overtaken by our adversaries, and in the economic realm that is fundamentally untrue,” noted Chausovsky. “We have not lost any of our marketing share, so the idea that we’re losing doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. The US economy is vibrant and continues to outgain many of the economies across the world.”

Chausovsky also sought to define possible motivational factors for the current administration. “I believe the mindset of President Trump is to throw his weight around and get concessions from smaller economies and preserve economic supremacy from other countries,” he added. “We’re trying to maintain US economic dominance.”

Trump’s tariff strategy has differed from his first and second terms, too. “He tried to be more targeted in his first administration, as Trump wanted congressional backing,” explained Chausovsky. “And he was largely successful in doing so. In the second administration, he’s almost exclusively done this by executive order. He’s not asking for permission and doesn’t care if people get on the same page. He believes tariffs are an equalizing factor that stifles our competition. We should be living with this reality for the next three plus years and maybe longer. This is the United States’ tool for dealing with the rest of the world.”

Fundamental shift

The state of the world has impacted many of the US’ responses to date. In many cases, the goal is addressing trade imbalances.

“We really should be analytical and objective in our analysis of the issues at hand. We’re seeing a fundamental shift in the way the world operates,” remarked Chausovsky. “We have new governments in place in the vast majority of countries.

“Some of our traditional partners, Canada and India, for example, are being pushed to our adversaries,” he added. “We want the world to believe that the US is a reliable partner.”

When discussing tariffs, Chausovsky detailed the three types: IEEPA, 232 National Security, and Section 301. Going forward, the Supreme Court will decide on the legality of IEEPA tariffs.

“Tariffs take 12-18 months to work their way through the system, so we’re looking at mid-to-third quarter of 2026 before we see effects of tariffs,” said Chausovsky. “Inflation currently sits at 3% and we’ll trend toward 3.5%. We won’t go back to 9% inflation that we saw in 2021, but we could increase to 4-4.5% in the future.”

“Devil in the details”

According to Chausovsky, the US economy is currently in a strong position. “The US real GDP, adjusted for inflation, through Q2, is at a record high,” he stated. “We’ve never had an economy as high as we do right now. As with all things economic, the devil is in the details, though. Taking growth rate vs. actual dollars shows Q2 of 2025 is up 2.1% vs. the GDP of 2024. We should be looking at Q2 of 2025 vs. Q2 of 2024, not Q1 vs. Q2. There is no recession that we’re careening toward. The average growth for GDP is 2% going back to 2004. There is no data evidence that we’re heading toward a recession.”

However, there has been essentially zero growth for 2023-2025. There was momentum in the industrial economy heading into 2025 because the election created optimism in the business community.

“That was visible in the data, as the line jumped to 2% and we entered 2025 on a tear,” said Chausovsky. “We hit April 2 and the Liberation Day announcement (which marked the start of new trade policies), and the most likely path forward is sideways. We’re treading along at a 0.6% growth rate. We’re not heading into a recession, but we’re not growing as we should. The US economy will tread water through much of 2026.”

Future takeaways

As companies plan for the future, Chausovsky detailed several actionable takeaways.

Companies shoud increase communication efforts up and down the supply chain and seek to protect margins from tariffs. This could include seeking savings in energy and shipping, for example. Competitive pay is key to retention, too.

“You should explore contracts and get competitive quotes from the market,” said Chausovsky. “Use other people’s pessimism to your advantage and offset some of the increased costs of business.

“I don’t see examples of the Great Depression from 1929 like food lines and 20% unemployment. There’s an element of fear-based selling with that topic. If I think back to 2008-09, what was the smart money doing at the low point that I can learn from? They were investing and buying equipment, stocks, businesses. 2030 seems like a logical point for a recession, but I’m not going to hide my money under the mattress. I look at it as an opportunity to create immense wealth if you’re prepared for it,” he concluded.