During a keynote presentation at Dscoop Edge Rockies on Monday, March 9, at the Gaylord Denver hotel, economist Taylor St. Germain of ITR Economics offered a data-driven look at the global economic landscape, emphasizing that while uncertainty remains high, the broader outlook for growth remains positive.

St. Germain noted that global economic uncertainty recently surged to record levels — even surpassing the peak seen during the COVID-19 pandemic — driven largely by geopolitical tensions and tariff policies. However, he emphasized that uncertainty alone should not be interpreted as a signal of economic decline.

“Demand is picking up despite uncertainty,” St. Germain told Dscoop Edge Rockies attendees. “We are still forecasting growth.”

The global economy

According to ITR Economics, the global economy is expected to grow roughly 3%, even as several major markets face structural challenges.

China, for example, continues to experience slowing growth, with demographic pressures and an aging population creating long-term headwinds, he said.

“China is in a demographic world of hurt,” St. Germain added. “They’re going to have to get very good at AI very fast.”

Trade policy is also reshaping global dynamics. St. Germain noted that tariffs are having uneven effects across global markets, with Canada and China absorbing much of the economic impact, while the European Union is emerging as a key export destination.

“Tariffs slow down the economy and they have an inflationary component to them,” he said.

Key takeaways

For print service providers and converters, the key takeaway is that economic growth will continue — but profitability may become more difficult to achieve.

“It’s not a question of whether you’ll grow your sales or revenue,” St. Germain said. “The real question is whether you’ll grow your margins.”

Rising labor costs are expected to play a significant role in that challenge. St. Germain forecast labor costs increasing more than 20% over the next four years, while electricity costs and other operational expenses are also rising faster than inflation.

Those pressures could lead to what St. Germain described as “profitless prosperity” — an environment where companies continue to grow but struggle to maintain margins.

“You cannot rely on price alone,” he told the audience. “You have to find ways to become more efficient.”

St. Germain also predicted that interest rates could reach 6–7% by 2030, adding another layer of pressure on capital investment decisions.

Despite those headwinds, he emphasized that manufacturing and production remain central to long-term economic growth.

“I want to live in a world where people are producing and making things,” he said.